{"id":1779,"date":"2018-10-15T11:47:19","date_gmt":"2018-10-15T11:47:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/box5782.temp.domains\/~progrgc9\/staging\/?p=1779"},"modified":"2019-05-23T14:36:34","modified_gmt":"2019-05-23T14:36:34","slug":"mr-hammond-gets-his-excuses-in-first","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/progressiveeconomyforum.com\/development\/blog\/mr-hammond-gets-his-excuses-in-first\/","title":{"rendered":"Mr Hammond gets his excuses in first"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In the face of growing pressure on the Conservatives to call time on public spending cuts, the Chancellor is using Brexit uncertainty as ideological cover for the continuation of austerity.<\/h4>\n\n\n

Willie McBride, captain of the famous 1974 British Lions rugby team, famously told his team mates before a match with South Africa, to \u201cget your retaliation in first\u201d.\u00a0 Operating on the same principle, the Chancellor busily gets his excuses in first in the run-up to his budget on 29 October.<\/p>\n

Recently, Mr Hammond promised to \u201cpave the way\u201d for the end of austerity should there be a good Brexit deal.\u00a0 This good deal, he maintained, might bring a double bonus. The first bonus in question would come from improved growth following the good deal, with increased growth generating increased revenue.<\/p>\n

The second bonus will arise from something Mr Hammond calls a \u201cfiscal buffer\u201d.\u00a0 To quote the Chancellor himself<\/a> on this unfamiliar concept (which the Guardian<\/em> identifies<\/a> as \u00a315 billion), \u201cAs uncertainty is unwound and we\u2019re in more favourable circumstances, logically, one would need less of a fiscal buffer and some of that could be released for to support [sic] the spending envelope or to deliver tax cuts\u201d.\u00a0 This term, which the Chancellor may have created for the occasion, seems to mean little more that not spending.<\/p>\n

If my interpretation is correct, I can translate his sentence into simple English \u2014 \u201cwhen the Brexit outcome is clear I will authorize more spending or lower taxes\u201d.\u00a0 From this translation we can derive a clear message.\u00a0 The budget date is 29 October.\u00a0 The probability is nil that Brexit \u201cuncertainty is unwound\u201d by 29 October.\u00a0 Therefore, using Mr Hammond\u2019s logic, the \u201cfavourable circumstances\u201d necessary for more spending or less tax will not occur in time for the budget.<\/p>\n

Simply put, Mr Hammond has got his excuses in first.\u00a0 To paraphrase Winston Churchill (Mansion House speech 10 November 1942<\/a>): \u201c29 October will not be the end of austerity, it will not even be the beginning of the end of austerity; but it will be, perhaps, my excuse for more of the same\u201d.<\/p>\n

The Chancellor has no \u201cfiscal buffer\u201d.\u00a0 No such concept or category exists in the Treasury.\u00a0 The \u201csavings\u201d that the Guardian<\/em> credits Mr Hammond as accumulating \u201cthis year\u201d do not exist.\u00a0 This conjectured \u00a315 billion is nothing more than austerity itself \u2013 not funding public services.\u00a0 However, the imaginary Brexit dividend is, indeed, a \u201cdouble bonus\u201d.<\/p>\n

First, it serves as propaganda to support the Prime Minister\u2019s fight for votes on her soon-to-emerge agreement with EU leaders \u2013 \u201cvote against the PM\u2019s plan and you undermined public finances\u201d.\u00a0 Along with this transparently bogus bonus goes the second, Mr Hammond\u2019s ready excuse to continue austerity \u2013 \u201cthe Brexit uncertainty remains so additional spending will be reckless\u201d.<\/p>\n

The putative Brexit uncertainty is an ideological gift that keeps on giving.\u00a0 In reality, if the May government does not fall, Brexit \u201cuncertainty\u201d will continue far beyond 29 March 2019, providing justification for austerity till end of Tory days.<\/p>\n

It is clear that the May government feels that it must hold out the promise of ending austerity.\u00a0 Theresa May offered that hope in her Conference speech and now her Chancellor repeats it, neither telling the public how it would be achieved.<\/p>\n

They do not tell us how because the answer cannot be spoken.\u00a0 Austerity will end when the Tory government ends and a progressive one replaces it. It\u2019s that simple.<\/p>\n

Photo credit: EU2017EE Estonian Presidency \/ Flickr<\/a><\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In the face of growing pressure to call time on public spending cuts, the Chancellor is using Brexit uncertainty as ideological cover for the continuation of austerity.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":1781,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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