Stephany Griffith-Jones and Jose Antonio Ocampo
Covid-19 is disrupting heavily the global economy. Internationally, it led to massive financial turmoil, a sharp fall of international trade, and a major global recession, possibly even bigger than the Great Depression. It resulted in significant flight of portfolio capital from emerging markets: over $100bn according to the IMF.
In many countries, sovereign debt repayments will be due soon, and it may become impossible, to raise new funds in private markets, for both governments and private companies to roll-over their debts, or even less increase borrowing. Even before the corona pandemic hit the world economy, many developing and emerging economies were already facing severe debt and liquidity problems.
Problems will be compounded by sharp falls in commodity prices -illustrated dramatically by the recent collapse of the price of oil. The coronavirus crisis can, therefore, trigger large-scale balance of payments crises across the developing world, as well as a sharp fall in output, employment, and increase in poverty. To avoid this, emerging and developing economies, would need $2.5 trillion of funding, as estimated by the IMF and UNCTAD.
A number of key measures need to be taken urgently by the international community to provide key international liquidity and development finance to emerging and developing economies, so they can minimize economic slowdown, and facilitate recovery.
These measures should be seen as important steps towards beginning a major reform of the international financial system. This is particularly important in the case of the global financial safety net, which remains patchy: it lacks coverage and resources to deal with a crisis of the magnitude we are currently facing.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) should agree a rapid issuance of at least $500bn in international liquidity, in the form of additional Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). This would build on the enlightened decision, taken by the G20, under the leadership of Gordon Brown, at their London meeting in 2009 to issue SDRs equivalent to $250bn. The UK, as well as the G7 and G20 should take leadership on this now as well.
It is highly disappointing that in the recent spring IMF/World Bank meetings, the issue of SDRs was vetoed by the United States, with the surprising support of India, even though major European countries supported it. It is key that the issue is proposed again, especially as the world economy continues to deteriorate.
The SDRs are international monetary assets issued by the IMF – acting. They are part of the foreign exchange reserves of countries, and they can be sold or used for payments to other central banks. Close to two-fifths of this allocation would enhance the international liquidity in the hands of emerging and developing countries, the main users of SDRs.
Furthermore, this should be the beginning of a deep discussion about the role of SDRs in the international monetary system. They are the only true global money, backed by all IMF members. However, it has remained as one of most underused instruments of international cooperation.
Though international liquidity is crucial, especially for balance-of-payments constrained developing and emerging economies, provision of sufficient long-term development finance, to help them fund investment is equally key, both to help support demand and future growth, as well as facilitate major structural transformation to a fairer societies and low carbon economies.
At the multilateral, regional and bilateral level (as well as the national one), public development banks can offer significant additional funding, especially at times when private capital and banking markets are unwilling or unable to take risks in the face of uncertainty and provide enough finance. It is therefore important to increase rapidly the capital of multilateral banks –the World Bank and the regional development banks like the European Investment Bank and the African Development Bank—, as well as of bilateral development banks –like Dutch FMO or German DEG—, to allow higher lending from them to take place speedily. It is important also that these banks, including especially the World Bank, do not attach structural conditionalities (particularly greater market reforms) to such loans, as the causes of the increased demand and need for their loans is not determined by economic policies but by the internal and external effects of the COVID pandemic.
By significantly increasing their lending in a counter-cyclical way, these larger multilateral, regional and bilateral development banks can support depressed short-term economic activity and, particularly, job creation, and help build a more equitable and sustainable economic development model.
In the medium-term, a more balanced financial system, both internationally and nationally, with a significantly increased role for development banks can help create a system that far better serves the economy, society and the planet than the current one.
Image credit: flickr/niawag
Stephany Griffith-Jonesis is a Council Member of PEF; she is Emeritus Professorial Fellow at IDS, Sussex University and Financial Markets Director, IPD, Columbia University.
José Antonio Ocampo, a professor at Columbia University, is a former Minister of Finance of Colombia, and former United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs.
